Tools & Analytics · Updated
Bankroll Simulator
Before you risk a penny, test your staking plan here. We run it across thousands of simulated seasons and show how often it survives, and how often it busts. It is the fastest way to see why staking matters as much as picking.
This simulator models a punter starting with £200, placing 200 bets at decimal odds of 2.0 with a 48% strike rate. At those numbers the bookmaker margin costs roughly 4% per stake, so most simulated seasons drift downward and a large share end broke. Change the odds, win rate and staking plan to see how the spread of outcomes shifts.
Each faint line is one simulated season; the pink line is the median run, the shaded band the middle 90% of outcomes, and the dashed horizontal line your starting bankroll. The x-axis counts bets placed.
Why Staking Beats Picking
Most punters obsess over selections and ignore stakes. That is backwards. How much you bet decides whether you survive the losing runs that every bettor hits, edge or no edge. A great tipster with a reckless staking plan still goes broke.
The simulator makes this visible. Set a small edge and flat stakes, and most seasons grind slowly upward. Switch to chasing: bigger stakes after losses, and the bust rate jumps. The maths does not care how confident you feel on a Saturday.
Flat, Percentage or Kelly?
Flat staking risks the same amount every time. It is simple and steady, and it is what we recommend for most punters. Percentage staking scales your bet to your bankroll, so you slow down when you are losing. Kelly is the mathematically optimal fraction: powerful, but punishing if you overestimate your edge.
Run all three in the tool above. Watch the bust rate and the worst-10% line, not just the best case. The plan that keeps you in the game beats the plan with the flashiest upside almost every time.
The Bookmaker Margin Is Real
Set the win rate to 48% at odds of 2.0 and watch what happens. That missing 2% is the bookmaker's margin, and it is the reason most punters lose over time. No staking plan beats a negative edge, it only changes how fast the money goes.
That is why our tips only fire when the model finds genuine value. Beating the margin is the whole game, and this tool shows you exactly how steep the hill is.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the bankroll simulator actually show?
It runs your staking plan across thousands of simulated betting seasons and shows the spread of outcomes: median, best 10%, worst 10% and how often you go bust.
The picks it assumes come from a model like our football predictions.
Which staking plan is best?
There is no single winner, but flat staking survives variance better than chasing. Try each and watch the bust rate.
We explain our own approach in the staking section of our betting tips.
Why do I still go bust with an edge?
Because variance is huge over a short run. An edge only pays off across thousands of bets, not one bad month.
Set limits first. See our responsible gambling guide.
Is this real money?
No. It is a simulation, no account, no deposit, no risk. It is a teaching tool, not a betting product.
When you are ready to bet for real, compare sites on our best betting sites page.